A look ahead to the year in games: Video Games Industry Memo, 04/01/2024
It’s quiet…but will it stay too quiet?
VGIM predicts that a suspiciously quiet looking 2024 won’t stay that way
China’s draft in-game spending laws sparks $80bn worth of chaos
Try to buy my love by donating to my charity fundraising runs
Video Games Industry Memo is back! After enjoying a fun start to the world of newslettering at the end of 2023, I’m aiming to keep tip-top VGIMs flying into your inboxes every Thursday across the whole of 2024.
Before we get started, I have a minor point of order to raise that I hope you’ll all take very seriously.
I’m making one tiny tweak to the VGIM format for 2024 by splitting the jobs section into two to highlight people on the move (or looking for a role) and to keep a separate space for interesting job adverts.
If you’d like to advertise that you’re looking for a role, that you’ve got a new job or you’re on the move, you can email me here.
You can also use that address to send me news tips, interview opportunities, details about events or game releases. You can even ask me about my Super Secret VGIM plans if you so wish.
Anyway, enough of that nonsense - let’s get 2024 under way.
The big read - A look ahead to the year in games
We’re four days into the New Year and that means, dear readers, that practically eff all has happened.
So instead of giving you a pithy summary of a topical news development shaping the sector this week, I’ve reached to clutch and cover myself in a comfort blanket beloved of all writers at this time of year: a preview of the next twelve months for games.
In many ways, 2024 is a tricky year to preview. If 2023 was a year of seemingly unadulterated chaotic mayhem for the games industry - for better and for worse - a cursory glance at the next twelve months could dupe you into thinking it’ll be a quiet one for a sector not particularly used to such a thing.
Take a deeper look, however, and you’ll see something else. Yes, 2024 currently lacks the noisy drama of 2023.
But once we get deeper into the year, developments within the industry and substantial changes to the world around it could turn it into a particularly important transitional year for the sector.
The calm after the storm
After 12 months of feasting on fantastic video games as part of a borderline orgiastic gluttony of gaming, 2024 currently offers slimmer pickings than a Mel Brooks cowboy movie.
While there are still some notable releases due to land this year - including Rocksteady’s Suicide Squad: Kill the Justice League, John Whittingdale MP approved fighting game Tekken 8 and the Alone in the Dark reimagining - 2024’s line-up feels comparatively threadbare next to 2023’s Triple A release fest.
However, the lack of major releases is likely to be counterbalanced in a few key ways from within the industry.
First, the lack of banner releases opens up room for smaller independent developers and mid-level publishers to successfully sell games after last year proved to be, in some cases, devastatingly busy. Expect games such as the mad Yorkshire ‘em up Thank Goodness You’re Here! and the not really very indie anymore (but long anticipated by me particularly) Hollow Knight: Silksong to be the beneficiaries of this much needed breathing space.
Second, there will also be more room for service based games to succeed as a result of fewer big name titles pinching their pocket money. This will allow existing heavy hitters to succeed, while also allowing newer service titles like The Finals or the recently released Fortnite extended universe to consolidate upon gains made last year.
Third, and somewhat obviously, more games will be officially added to the slate as the year progresses, such as Ubisoft’s Star Wars: Outlaws which is yet to get its official launch date but is very strongly likely to hit this year.
But the other major reason that 2024 looks quieter than usual - and related to the reason above - is that there is a strong suspicion that there will be a new console to talk about that will increase the volume of games coming down the pipe once it’s been announced.
Console yourself
The biggest story of 2024 will likely be Nintendo’s announcement and launch of its successor to the Switch.
Little is known about the new device yet. The console reportedly builds upon the Switch’s wildly popular “home console to handheld device” proposition, offering a souped up experience that will be equivalent to playing games at a quality akin to last generation’s PlayStation 4 Pro on the go.
If a new device is announced and launched this year - which most of the industry assumes it will be given that it was reportedly being shown off at gamescom last year - 2024 will change quite significantly with it.
The release of a new Nintendo console with a number of major first party titles and a range of third party support will both bulk out the release calendar considerably and shape the industry discussion for the rest of the year.
It will also play a part in building serious momentum for the industry ahead of 2025, which is shaping up to be a whopping year for the sector.
This is largely due to the release of Grand Theft Auto 6 at some point next year which, despite the lack of a launch date at the time of writing, will receive feverishly noisy coverage throughout 2024 - exciting consumers and forcing the industry to plan around its big beats.
But the conclusive arrival of the mid-point of this current console generation by the end of 2024 will also shape the sector for years to come.
Sony’s decision to launch a slimline PS5 at the tail end of 2023 and Microsoft’s leaked plans to refresh its hardware from the end of this year means that the industry’s horizons will inevitably turn to what comes next as we reach the end of 2024: making this year the one that sets the course of much of the sector until the end of the decade.
Press reset
The year’s likely mid-year personality shift means that the industry may also have an opportunity to emerge out from underneath the horrible shadow cast on it in 2023.
As outlined in last year’s piece about job losses, 2023’s brutality was shocking.
The impact of the pandemic finally caught up with the industry, with a chaotic release calendar and over the top financial expectations causing severe pain.
Rampant inflation hit the sector in ways that it hadn’t planned for, both in terms of significantly raising the cost of development and by reducing access to ‘free money’ from investors stung by interest rate increases.
And the industry didn’t help itself as a result of some poor business decisions, ranging from Embracer Group’s contagious over-extension to the blowing of vast quantities of investment cash at the metaverse and Web 3 magic bean stalls.
Yet while each of these issues have not gone away, there is a reasonable chance that 2024 will allow the industry to steadily overcome them as the year progresses.
The quieter release calendar will likely depress consumer spend initially but, as mentioned above, it will also spread it more evenly - taking the edge off last year’s sharp polarisation of industry winners and losers.
Adjusting for inflation and a tougher financial climate will continue to be a challenge for businesses, which will likely result in further job losses in the short term. But last year has at least allowed the sector to price in the worst of the impacts, giving a shred of hope that it will - eventually - look upwards as the year progresses.
Venture and investment capital won’t flow as freely as it did in the pandemic, especially after so many VCs burnt themselves last year. But the cash that does flow will be more sensibly sceptical, likely favouring core games businesses with comparatively mundane business plans over flights of fancy (well, AI excepted of course…)
And while hiring will likely be tight at the outset of the year, the steady shift towards the mid-point of this console generation will force the largest developers to begin development of games for the next one. This will open up questions about what resource will be needed to ensure games ship in time for the new generation, potentially opening up more roles towards the end of this year and the beginning of 2025.
So while 2023 will continue to cast its shadow into this year, 2024 may also be the moment that the industry’s post-pandemic reset finally completes and alows the sector to return to a more even keel.
Playing politics
Finally, the games industry will have to negotiate one challenge that’s broadly out of its control but could play a significant role in shaping its fortunes in 2024: global political change.
This year sees voters go to the polls in the European elections in May, in the US in November and in the UK…whenever Prime Minister Rishi Sunak decides to call it (note to international readers: the UK is often a deeply unserious country).
And while video games policy won’t be on the minds of many voters except for, frankly, nerds like me, the impact of imminent elections will likely affect the industry in a few key ways.
First, the mad dash to tie everything off before polling day means that the industry is going to have to work hard across 2024 to make sure that it is continuing to operate on the right side of John Law
Online safety law is stiffening significantly this year, with the EU’s Digital Services Act and the UK’s Online Safety Act both coming into force. Developers of services that include user-to-user communication will need to demonstrate they are monitoring for and effectively dealing with a range of harms to users - especially children - or face significant sanctions following their implementation.
Competition law will also get tougher, with Europe’s Digital Markets Act and the UK’s Digital Markets, Competition and Consumers Bill set to sharpen the teeth of regulators of the Big Tech gatekeepers - improving their ongoing monitoring of designated businesses, speeding up their interventions in competition matters and strengthening their ability to levy punishments on companies proven to be abusing their position.
And while games businesses are not necessarily the principle target of either sets of law, many will end up in scope including the social media platforms that closely integrate with the sector like Discord, the major platforms who offer communication services such as Steam and Xbox and developers and publishers of online games with any user-to-user chat functionality. This will make compliance one of the watch words of 2024 for many games businesses.
Second, there is a realistic chance that the political leadership that the industry lobbies could change across much of the world.
As it stands, the UK looks like it’ll go to the left, the EU towards the right and the United States, quite possibly, straight to hell in a handcart. The industry will have to work hard to ensure that it has a consistent, credible and effective story that can both appeal to incumbents and flex towards new regimes.
Third and finally, there is also a chance that parties could make last minute changes to their policy platforms to account for global regulatory or legal trends that could end up affecting the industry down the line.
Could Epic Games’s notable victory against Google in a recent antitrust case encourage policymakers to strengthen their existing work to open up distribution and payment through major platforms? Will China’s dramatic moves to limit in-game spend inspire campaign groups and politicians concerned with possible harms from in game spend to push for similar measures elsewhere? And will moves by different nation states to fund, finance and support games companies lead to proposals for new policies and plans for countries to lure game developers to their shores or become a new front for concerns about foreign influence?
In reality, the answer is that none of these questions will likely make a change now. Most policy platforms have been developed prior to 2024, meaning that we’re more likely to be in the realms of tweaks rather than last minute drastic changes.
But given that the UK games industry’s painfully long battle over loot boxes was exacerbated by a last minute commitment by the Conservative Party to act on them in their 2019 manifesto, don’t rule out the possibility of the sector being affected by a political wildcard being pulled by someone involved in the forthcoming cavalcade of elections.
The VGIM bluffer’s guide to the games industry in 2024
Do say: 2024 will be a transitional year for the video games industry as it concludes its post pandemic readjustment, prepares itself for the arrival of a new Nintendo console and adapts to a shifting political landscape.
Don’t say: …so you don’t really need me until April, right?
News in brief
Chinese New Fears: As alluded to in the big read, shares in Tencent and Netease were sent tumbling in the run up to Christmas after the Chinese government published draft regulations that would apply spending caps to online games, ban daily reward logins and curb the use of ‘lucky draw’ features. However, there are reports that the official responsible for the draft rules has been removed (gulps) - suggesting the proposals may be walked back to some extent.
Miya-mustread: Guardian games editor Keza Macdonald secured an exclusive interview with Nintendo’s legendary game designer Shigeru Miyamoto. The piece is packed full of fascinating insights into Miyamoto’s work and development philosophy, including his initial desire to get into making games to ‘make something weird’. Love it.
Square AI-nix: Square Enix’s new president Takashi Kiryu has bolshily predicted in his new year letter that generative AI will reshape the way that games are made, committing the company to aggressively exploring the application of it and new technologies in game development. His predecessor made a similar prediction about Web 3 and blockchain, so grab that pinch of salt while you have time.
Blockpain: Speaking of blockchain, Epic Games has added ‘Adults Only’ labels to blockchain games on its store after the US age rating authority ESRB applied the label to two titles listed on the platform. This is consistent with the approach taken in Europe, with games featuring blockchain content receiving PEGI 18s aplenty.
CBEs of the roundtable: Rebellion co-founders Jason and Chris Kingsley have both been awarded the epithet of Commander of the British Empire (CBE) in the UK’s New Year’s Honours List for services to the creative industry. Given Jason’s penchant for jousting, the decision not to give him a knighthood proved to be a significant blow to my pun making.
On the move
Jurgen Post is back at Sega, taking up the role of COO in the company’s western studios…Jill Braff has been named Head of Studio for Bethesda and Zenimax…Tom Butler has been promoted to Head of Publishing at Larian Studios…Jakub Racinowski is hunting for a new marketing role and has eight years of go-to-market experience to bring your way…And Bobby Kotick is out at Activision Blizzard following the conclusion of its acquisition by Microsoft last year.
Jobs, jobs, jobs
Sports Interactive is hiring for a PR and Content Manager to help launch the next Football Manager…Splash Damage is seeking a new Art Director…Sharkmob is hunting for a range of Game AI roles including a Principal Game AI Engineer…Rockstar is looking for a new Technical Artist with interior environment design experience to start immediately...Sumo Digital is advertising for a Senior Systems & Economy Designer to join them in Sheffield…
Events and conferences
Pocket Gamer Connects (20% for VGIM readers), London - 22nd-23rd January
DICE Summit, Las Vegas - 13th-15th February
Guildford Games Festival, Guildford - 16th February
Game Developers Conference, San Francisco - 18th - 22nd March
London Games Festival, London - 9th-25th April 2024
Games(Aid) of the week
Ok, so the bad news is that nothing is releasing this week. So instead, I’ll use this as an opportunity to plug a charity fundraiser because why not eh?
I’m once again doing a broadly stupid running challenge to raise money for the UK video games industry charity GamesAid, which I’m a trustee and co-chair of.
Support my attempt to run a half-marathon every month to help charities supporting children across the UK by making a donation here.
Before you go…
Were you wondering whether video games had hit the cultural mainstream or not?
Well, wonder no more after the UK’s tax authority hit me with this advert in my Linkedin feed earlier this week.
Quick game of Candy Tax Saga, anybody?